Erratic heat patterns, rising temperatures and shifting rainfall trends are causing a significant increase in landslides across Pakistan’s northern mountainous belt — particularly along the famed N-15 route, also known as the ‘tourism highway’, which connects Balakot, Babusar Top, Naran and Chilas.
A joint team of Pakistani and Chinese scientists examined 455 satellite images, climate records and on-ground assessments between 1990 and 2023. Their findings reveal at least 335 non-seismic landslides during this period, with debris, mud, rocks and ice repeatedly blocking the highway and threatening communities and tourists.
Researchers used a three-step approach: remote sensing through Landsat and Sentinel-2 data, verification through high-resolution Google Earth images, and field surveys. The study confirms a steady rise in temperature and precipitation over three decades, aligning with a notable surge in landslide activity — particularly after 2005, when warming, snowmelt and heavier rains intensified. Nearly 84% of landslides occurred between April and October.
Different climate zones along the highway respond uniquely to these changes: Balakot’s subtropical region sees slide events driven by intense precipitation; Babusar Top and Naran, situated in alpine terrain, are vulnerable due to high soil moisture and rainfall; while in semi-arid Chilas, heat and geological features play the dominant role.
Topography worsens the risk, with researchers noting that over 86% of landslides occurred on slopes steeper than 40°, and 65% were recorded at elevations between 1,000 and 2,500 metres. Using ALOS PALSAR elevation data and ground verification, scientists concluded that steep gradients and unstable soil conditions make the corridor particularly prone to collapse.
Field visits in 2022 and 2023 validated satellite-based findings. Nazir Ahmed Bazai from the China Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences said imagery had earlier indicated instability in Balakot, which was later confirmed on-site through observed debris and damaged infrastructure. Local communities, meanwhile, continue to rely on reactive coping strategies, often avoiding high-risk zones during monsoons, but lacking resources for sustained safety measures.
To build long-term resilience, Bazai emphasised low-cost bioengineering solutions such as planting deep-rooted vegetation in vulnerable zones, constructing protective barriers, improving drainage along the route and installing real-time monitoring systems, particularly near Babusar Pass. Community awareness programmes on evacuation and early-warning tools were also identified as crucial.
International findings reinforce the danger. A global fatal landslide database compiled by Dr Melanie Froude and Dave Petley records 1,583 deaths from 215 non-seismic landslides in Pakistan between 2004 and 2016. Froude stresses the need to “research, regulate and educate” — from scientific assessments of slope stability and stricter building regulations in mountain regions to community-level awareness on maintaining vegetation and proper drainage.
As climate extremes intensify, researchers warn that Pakistan’s northern tourism corridor faces mounting disaster risks unless scientific insights, local knowledge and robust infrastructure planning are urgently combined.
Story by Suhail Yusuf
